The time will be exactly at 0:00 seconds, 0:00 minutes, at 7 o'clock in the morning.

That is when the poling booths will open.

However, I do not know the date. Nobody does. 

As everything about the EU referendum nothing is said or understood, clear or defined. Everything is flexible, including the possible date and how long the campaign will last.

How long we will have for the referendum is crucial for the strategy. Start too early and you will run out of steam. Start to late and you will run out of time.

So what are the options?



Under the European Union Referendum Bill 2015-16 a referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union is to be held before the end of 2017. There are provisions in the Bill and in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 (PPERA) that affect the minimum length of time between the announcement of the date of the referendum and the poll.

But what is the 'minimum length of time'? That is not a rhetorical questions. It has practical campaigning impact.

The date will be set by the Government in regulations under the Bill, subject to the approval by both Houses of Parliament. The Government is free to decide when to bring forward such regulations, but the date of the poll must be at least 28 days after the day on which the 'lead campaign organisations' are designated by the Electoral Commission. (Lead campaign organisations are recognised to represent each side of the referendum and are allowed to public subsidies)

.

So here you are - a minimum of 4 weeks. Snap poll perhaps?

 However, there are no legal provisions that prescribe the length of the referendum period, and this period is set under regulations that will be brought forward under the Bill. The Ministers said that there will be a minimum of 10 weeks to campaign.

So is it four weeks or 10 weeks? Or 6 months?

The Electoral Commission report on the Scottish Referendum recommended that " .. that in planning for any future referendums,…. governments should aim to ensure that legislation is clear at least six months before it …. to be implemented". In addition the Electoral Commission also states "that for future referendums the detailed rules should be clear at least 28 weeks in advance of polling day, based on a statutory regulated referendum campaign period of 16 weeks"

There are two other issues which will influence the referendum date: purdah and voting of the 16 years old.

The 'purdah' rules are currently 28 days when government, ministers and ministries (incl the EU ones) MUST NOT CAMPAIGN. Cameron wants to get rid of them, LEAVE campaign wants to extend them. With the Bill in its current form, it will be four months if the Government decides to modify the purdah rules.

And then there is the inclusion of 16 years old. Legislation is required for that.

Against all that 4 weeks to 6 months guessing game there have been reports in the last week that during the December EU meeting Cameron will declare that the referendum will be in April 2016. If I take an arbitrary Saturday as 18 April 2016, it is exactly 4 months from the time I am writing this. (I am assuming calling it for 1st April would be a joke beyond PM sense of humour)

So we don't know. Like Scouts we must be prepared whatever the date is.

* George Smid was the Liberal Democrat candidate in South Holland and the Deepings in 2015. He is a member of the East Midlands Regional Executive, the English Council Executive and is a former European candidate

It was reported on the BBC News at Ten on Saturday night [Ed: and also here on LDV] that Tim Farron had been stranded in his car with four children in the stormy weather conditions, in Cumbria with (presumably) a telephone interview with Tim.

I wonder if, while waiting to be picked up, he reflected on the report from Keswick - that the town had launched an appeal for one million pounds to help with the clear up operation that will now be required in the town. If he did he might have recalled that each of the bombing missions now being carried out on Syria, that he had voted for on Wednesday, had been costed by Sky at a little more than this amount.

As Tim says in the BT report "It is incredible weather. We have not seen anything like this. This is Cumbria for pity's sake - we are used to challenging weather. This is beyond anything I can even recall". This news item was followed by a report from India which claimed that the Madras area is experiencing the heaviest rain for a hundred years with 'The Hindu' not being published for the first time since 1878 - nearly 200 people have already died.

The BBC followed these two items with a report on the second set of air strikes on Syria - no doubt each at a cost in excess of another million. I presume that the particularly unusual weather reports in the UK and India will help to convince those who doubt that mankind's activities has affected the climate and should help the negotiators, in Paris - currently trying to get a binding agreement on CO2 emissions. However, for me it seemed so ridiculous to be spending millions on weapons - money that is desperately needed to build flood defences at home.

Since it is admitted by both David Cameron and Michael Fallon that the air strikes will be needed for many years to come, I wonder if Tim, with his constituency MP's hat on, will consider whether the Party should campaign for stopping air strikes on both Iraq and Syria. It is accepted in both cases that it will require 'boots on the ground' - and in the end, as in Afghanistan, it will be the group who are most determined to succeed and fight for the land that will end up controlling the areas eventually.

I would be surprised if a sizable majority will not support this view within a few short years as hundreds of millions are wasted on weapons that kill and destroy rather than build, although the manufacturers of these weapons (or more precisely the main shareholders and their executives) will be very disappointed if their 'cash cow' should stop lactating after more than a decade.

* John Roffey is a former member of the Party from Crowthorne who is actively considering rejoining - he is particularly concerned about global warming/climate change and other environmental issues.