Two big events this week to mention which will affect us longterm

In sight of the end of the Euro-zone crisis ?

There was a settlement at 4am this morning in Brussels which, I hope, will permanently stabilise the Euro zone. It comes after twenty months of dithering by leaders of the member countries of the EU. Full details are yet to emerge and will have to be ratified by MEPs and by all member state national parliaments. It requires certain member states to introduce internal reforms, and it requires tools for Brussels to enforce the rules.

If world markets consider that the Euro is now safe from them, then I fear for the next target of the speculators - which may be the pound sterling, with Britain's ever growing debts, high inflation, printing of money, and economic stagnation.

Arab Spring - the first democratic election was held in Tunisia this week

A delegation of MEPs served as Election Observers. Here is a summary of their notes.

The first ever Tunisian free elections appeared to them to have gone very well. We must watch and see what form of government they are able to form.

Ennahda which won with 40% of the votes is a moderate Islamist party. It had the truly revolutionary credentials. Those, like PDP who included old RDC (Ben Ali) people or called for reconciliation with people from the old regime, lost. Ennahda has many leaders who were in prison for years. Additionally, CPR has credibility and didn't include old RDC people. Those who were perceived to have been Ben Ali's opposition won.

Tunisia is a rather secular country, but 98% call themselves Muslim. Ben Ali was very secular and oppressed Islam. The vote today in favour of Ennahda is again a vote for liberation. Those who attacked Islam and Ennahda lost the election. This is certainly one of the reasons CPR won; they never attacked Ennahda. A turning point in the campaign was probably the fact that one television station broadcast Persepolis, an artistic attack on the abuse of the revolution of 1979 in Iran. People probably felt that this was an attempt to scare people off Ennahda -in fact, it worked the other way.

Ennahda was the best organised party and had one of the most elaborate electoral programme. They have the image of stability; something every Tunisian is looking for. Since the revolution, unemployment has doubled. The secular parties came too late in the game or have been arguing about everything. The parties of the centre didn't manage to form a coalition with a positive common programme for change. The strategy to position themselves as the anti-Ennahda didn't pay off.

It is of a huge importance to giveTunisia and Ennahda a chance. Europe can't make the mistake of 2006 in Palestine; asking for elections and refusing to be happy with the result because of being too Islamic.

In short, the elections inTunisia were a feast of democracy, with a massive turnout and great transparency. Moderate Islam won because of their credentials in their opposition against Ben Ali and because of their good organisation.

Egypt in the meantime

Political parties in Egypt have been following the elections inTunisia closely. The fact that in a secular country like Tunisia, where Ennahda won 40%, raises fears that the far more religious Muslim Brotherhood will win a greater percentage in Egypt. In any case, the similarities are striking. Just as with Ennahda, the MB is the champion of the opposition against the Mubarak regime. The MB is the most stable, best organised and best financed party of Egypt. The secular opposition is falling apart, while attacking the MB and increasing the image of being anti-Islam. Until two weeks ago Egypt had two major political blocs: the Egyptian Bloc around the Democratic Front Party, with 14 parties and the Democratic Bloc around the MB, with 34 parties. Now both blocs have been falling apart. This week the Democratic Bloc only consists of nine parties, while the Egyptian Bloc consists of three parties.

Yesterday the Democratic Bloc made public their electoral lists with an important message: 76 women and 2 Copts fielded. In the top half of the lists there will be 25 to 30 women. In the same top half of the list only half of the candidates are from the MB. As such, it is clear that the MB is making an effort to create the image of being open and moderate. The victory of Ennahda will in any case enforce the moderate voices in the MB.

EU 2012 Budget

MEPs voted their first reading of the proposed 2012 EU budget this week. Final agreement with the other chamber, the Council, is expected in mid-December. Already some of the media are mis-reporting our first reading as the final result, rather than a negotiating position. If you are keen for more details, please use this link http://www.europarl.europa.eu/en/pressroom/content/20111026IPR30364/html/Parliament-votes-growth-stimulating-budget-for-2012

All the best

Bill