Opinion: A Surging UKIP: Implications for Lib Dems in 2015

Against a less than optimal backdrop, Eastleigh was a remarkable victory for the Lib Dems.

And yet, the by-election was by no means unqualified success - support fell by 14 points relative to the 2010 general election result, with Mike Thornton winning in large part because the Conservative's share dropped by a similar amount.

Of course, it was UKIP's performance that caused such a divergence from the 2010 result. The UKIP question, then, is an important one - how will a surging centre-right party affect the electoral dynamics of the 30 or so constituencies in which the main threat to Lib Dem incumbents comes from Tory candidates?

It is tempting to think recent developments bode well for the Lib Dems. Last weekend The Telegraph was awash with editorials bemoaning the success of UKIP. Daniel Hannan MEP and Toby Young led calls to 'Unite the Right', fearing that in the absence of a pact between UKIP and the Tories, the Lib Dems will benefit.

But the data from Eastleigh does not support the Hannan/Young analysis. As Nigel Farage maintained over the weekend, UKIP took votes from across the political spectrum. And polling conducted over the course of the campaign bears this analysis out - Survation (February 23^rd) and Lord Ashcroft (February 24^th) both indicated Diane James was picking up support from previous Lib Dem and Tory voters in equal measure. Survation had 18% of 2010 Tory support going to UKIP compared to 17% of 2010 Lib Dem voters. Ashcroft's poll had the figures at 18% and 15% respectively.

More worrying still is the evidence that UKIP's campaigning was particularly effective at softening up the Lib Dem vote. Towards the end of the campaign UKIP support was evenly spread across previous Lib Dem and Tory voters. But in polls conducted immediately after the by-election was triggered, those intending to vote for Diane James were far more likely to be ex-Tory voters as Survation found in its February 8^th poll, with 20.1% of the 2010 Tory vote was going to UKIP compared to 8.3% of 2010 Lib Dems.

UKIP's cross-party appeal is significant for two reasons. While it seems difficult to square UKIP's ability to attract votes from the centre-left given the party's political inclination, the most common explanation - that UKIP is picking up votes from those disaffected with the main three parties - is supported by the data from Eastleigh. But then the Young/Hannan diagnosis seems misguided - UKIP's success is not indicative of some grand coalition of the right, but rather the party's ability to profit on the misfortunes of others. (Cameron, take note).

Secondly, the evidence from Eastleigh does not indicate a confident UKIP will help the Lib Dems defend seats in the South West and other Lib Dem/Tory marginals. It is, of course, always difficult to generalise trends from by-election results. But given how soft the Lib Dem vote proved to be last Thursday, complacency over an emboldened UKIP should be resisted.

* William is currently working as a Research Intern at Survation while completing his MSc at the London School of Economics.

Read more by William Mosseri-Marlio or more about eastleigh by-election or ukip. This entry was posted in Op-eds. Bookmark the web address for this page or use the short url http://ldv.org.uk/33629 for Twitter and emails.

Comment from John Weaver - Kettering and Wellingborough

Eastleigh was typical of nothing; there were several reasons for us to lose that were nothing to do with policy. I would listen to an analysis ahead of one distorted example.
Lib-Dems, faced with an anti-EU voter in most situations should urge them to vote UKIP, and exploit - for once - our peculiar barmy electoral system.