The Lib Dems’ problem in a nutshell

On Thursday the ASI published an article I wrote about the Labour leadership election and the concept of Expressive Voting. This theory, developed by Geoffrey Brennan and Loren Lomasky in their book Democracy and Decision: the pure theory of electoral preference, offers a new explanation for the "paradox of voting", the rationality-defying fact that people vote despite the improbability that their vote will make a difference.

Brennan and Lomasky suggest that individuals do not vote primarily to affect the outcome (which they know they cannot) but to express a preference; indeed, to express themselves. Much as we might shout at a football match on television or curse out loud when on our own, there is something inherent in the human psyche that wishes to express its opinion. What is more, the way in which we express ourselves helps define who we are, and enables us to feel good about ourselves.

As I explained in my article:

The crucial point here is that there is absolutely zero cost to expressing oneself any way one pleases at the ballot box, because one's vote is hardly likely to matter. For the same reason, the only tangible benefit one is likely to reap from voting is that feeling one gets for choosing "the right" candidate. Vote Labour and you are a caring person; vote Conservative and you are a responsible person; vote UKIP and you are a proud patriot; vote Green and you want to save our planet…

What struck me as I wrote those words was that I could not give a simple reason why people vote Liberal Democrat.

Now let me quickly clarify something, to avoid any confusion. I am not saying that there is no reason to vote Lib Dem, or that I do not know why I am a Liberal Democrat. Nor am I denying that there is a strong philosophical, political and intellectual case for liberalism. There are good answers to all those questions, but they are beside the point. Most people - the "mass publics" that Converse wrote about - do not base their political judgements on complex arguments or abstract ideas, and they do not hold consistent ideological views. Rather, they rely on intuition and feeling, and their votes are an expression of themselves and how they feel about the world.

And I can't for the life of me sum that up for Lib Dem voters in a few words.

Think again about that last sentence in the quote above. You don't need to agree that the Conservatives are responsible or that Labour care - it doesn't matter whether those judgements are correct. The point is that (by and large) we have a good idea of what people are thinking and feeling when the vote the way they do. (And just to be clear: No, people do not vote selfishly).

So here's my question to you. Why do people vote Lib Dem? Not our members, or our supporters; not the people who have directly interacted with the party; and certainly not activists or those with a developed understanding of political philosophy. Not you. But the two million of our 2.4m voters in 2015; the six and a half million from 2010. What would have been their single sentence, eight or nine word answer to the question "Who did you vote for and why?"

I'm not interested in specific policies or socio-economic conditions. And I don't believe for a second they would use abstract nouns. You and I might talk about "freedom" and "social justice". They don't.

I think this may be the most important question we need to answer. Because if we don't know why people vote for us - if we don't know why they would vote for us - then we cannot hope to win their support. We can design the perfect policies for our time and fashion a narrative that is rich and compelling, but if we cannot give the voters an simple, intuitive, emotional reason to vote for us, they won't. And the next election might be our last chance.

* Tom Papworth is Associate Director - Economic Policy at CentreForum, the liberal think tank, and author of The Business Case for Immigration Reform. He is a board member of Liberal Reform.

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