High Peak Liberal Democrats

WE should be highly sceptical od air strikes against Syria

There is a famous saying by Albert Einstein I am sure you are all familiar; "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results."

And now we contemplate another military intervention in the Middle East…

Of course the experience of Iraq shows the consequences of getting it wrong. But Afghanistan was also a failed policy. And under our watch in government, Libya too. Yet whilst much has been said about Iraq, little has been said about Libya. Perhaps we have not come to terms of what we did there, and the hellhole that Libya has become?

The fundamental problem we have is that we seem incapable of being objective in judging whether what we would like to do would actually work, by which I mean do more good than harm. The reason appears to be that we confuse the reasons to do things with our ability to do things. There is no shortage of reasons why we should bomb Syria. Indeed there are plenty of reasons to bomb Saudi Arabia for their human rights record, or China for genocide in Tibet. But at least in those cases we are aware of our limitations, which are not just military but economic as well. So we happily trade with them instead.

One of the few Tory MPs I respect is Rory Stewart who once said rather brutally; "We are not morally obliged to do what we cannot deliver". I would add to that that we ARE morally obliged to be as objective as possible to work out what we can deliver. The moral outrage over the bombing in Paris has made objectivity very hard to do. What if having looked at the options objectively each one that involves military action will make the situation worse? The evidence that this may be the case comes from the previous failures; we are always wise after the last event, but never before the next one.

There is another added factor that makes this situation an ominous one. The complexity of it all. After all the Russia attacks on Syria took the US completely by surprise. Do we really think we can persuade Turkey not to attack the Kurds, or do we just hear what we want to hear? If they are going to be put in charge of the so called "safe zones" in Syria that could lead to all out war. I would like anyone who is making these kind of decisions to have a thorough understanding of the history, culture and politics of the region and make their case accordingly in Parliament or the US Senate. But that hasn't happened yet.

There are many countries involved in Syria and the tension is building up, with no sign of anyone wanting to back down. There are striking similarities to the build up of the first world war. For that reason, my hope is that Parliament will stop the Tory warpath in its tracks.

* Geoff Payne is the events organiser for Hackney Liberal Democrats

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