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Lib Dems only party to score vote increase in Sleaford and North Hykeham Parliamentary by-election as Labour falls to fourth

December 10, 2016 10:27 AM
By Mark Pack
Originally published by South Lincolnshire Liberal Democrats

In Parliamentary by-election Lib Dem Ross Pepper was the only candidate to increase his party's vote share:

Ross-Pepper-with-Sal-Brinton-on-being selected

Sleaford and North Hykeham byelection results

Caroline Johnson (Cons) 17,570 (53.51%, -2.68%)

Victoria Ayling (Ukip) 4,426 (13.48%, -2.21%)

Ross Pepper (Lib Dem) 3,606 (10.98%, +5.33%)

Jim Clarke (Lab) 3,363 (10.24%, -7.02%)

Marianne Overton (Lincs Ind) 2,892 (8.81%, +3.59%)

Sarah Stock (Ind) 462 (1.41%)

The Iconic Arty-Pole (Loony) 200 (0.61%)

Paul Coyne (ND) 186 (0.57%)

Mark Suffield (ND) 74 (0.23%)

David Bishop (BP Elvis) 55 (0.17%)

Cons maj 13,144 (40.03%)

Electorate 88,712; Turnout 32,834 (37.01%, minus 33.23%)

That Liberal Democrat performance is a marked improvement on the last few years of by-elections where the party has been a long way out of contention for winning. Deposit held, vote up and overtaking another party to move up a place in the final ranking. The party even came close to finishing second.

As I've argued in my pamphlet on rebuilding the Liberal Democrats the party needs to take such contests seriously to regain credibility in the eyes of the wider world and to build political momentum. The welcome change in approach which we have seen this year to contests the party is unlikely to win had already paid big dividends: the big progress in Witney helped set up the win in Richmond. Now the contest in Sleaford & North Hykeham also has shown the value of taking all Parliamentary by-elections seriously as they all make up part of the overall picture the media paints of the state of the party, and through the media the picture the wider public sees.

It also gives a glimpse of the power of a core vote strategy for the Liberal Democrats, centred on pro-Europeanism and gives a hint that the striking YouGov polling on how people across the country would vote in the next general election ended up being focused on Europe reflects something very real happening amongst the electorate. Even in an area which heavily supported Leave, a pro-European message helped power the Liberal Democrats to an increase in its vote.

Having a clear and distinctive position on the controversial issue of the day puts off some voters, but seeking the support of everyone is a strategy for dictators not democrats. In a democracy and can give you attention and success thanks to the other voters it attracts.

I've often commented in council by-elections on a poor Ukip performance, so note once again the falling Ukip vote share - and this in a seat that voted heavily for Leave and after Europe has been in the headlines for several days in the immediate run up to voting. Labour falling to fourth is pretty unpleasant reading for Jeremy Corbyn's party too.

Council By-Elections this week

Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural - 8th December 2016

Labour 98 [34.9%; -0.5%]

Green 79 [28.1%; -4.4%]

Conservative 68 [24.2%; +0.5%]

LD Pippa Hepworth 36 [12.8%; +4.4%]

Majority: 19

Turnout: 7.12%

Labour hold

Percentage change since 2015

Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Madeley - 8th December 2016

A loss for Labour in a ward both of whose councillors were Liberal Democrat after a victorious by-election in 2012 but both of whom then left the party, one to Labour and one to independent. A loss, moreover, with an eye-watering drop in the vote share:

Independent 458 [64.8%; +64.8%]

Conservative 112 [15.8%; -7.1%]

LD Peter Andras: 75 [10.6%; +10.6%]

Labour 62 [8.8%; -35.5%]

[Green [0.0%; -7.8%]

[UKIP [0.0%; -24.9%]

Majority: 346

Turnout: Unknown

Independent gain from Labour

Percentage change since 2014

Angus UA, Carnoustie and District - 5th December 2016

Independent 1401 [43.5%; +43.5%]

SNP 1033 [32.1%; +13.5%]

Conservative 568 [17.7%; +9.0%]

Labour 141 [4.4%; +4.4%]

LD Beth Morrison 75 [2.3%; +1.0%]

[Independent [0.0%; -56.0%]

[Independent [0.0%; -15.4%]

Turnout: 30.2%

Majority: 368

Independent gain from SNP

First preference votes. Percentage change since 2012.

Telford & Wrekin UA, Horsehay & Lightmoor - 8th December 2016

A rare Labour gain from the Conservatives in ward containing the inappropriately named - this time at least - pub 'All Labour In Vain'. Regrettably, there was no Liberal Democrat candidate

Labour 358 [45.9%; +22.1%]

Conservative 292 [38.2%; -5.0%]

UKIP 124 [15.9%; -1.8%]

[Green [0.0%; -6.4%]

[Libertarian [0.0%; -1.5%]

[LD [0.0%; -7.4%]

Majority: 66

Turnout: 17.0%

Labour gain from Conservative

Percentage change since 2015

Maldon DC, Maldon West - 8th December 2016

Ind 279 [38.1%; -12.6%]

Con 172 [23.5%; -6.4%]

UKIP 114 [15.6%; +15.6%]

Green 69 [9.4%; -10.0%]

Fighting Unsustainable Development 51 [7.0%; +7.0%]

Labour 47 [6.4%; +6.4%]

Independent GAIN from Conservative.

Turnout 24%.

Tonbridge & Malling BC, Trench - 8th December 2016

Both Greens and Liberal Democrats backed Labour rather than putting up their own candidates. The Conservatives however still won very comfortably:

CON: 603 [61.2%; +17.4]

LAB: 204 [20.7%; +1.1]

UKIP: 178 [18.1%; -0.4]

Conservative hold.

Turnout 27.2%