High Peak Liberal Democrats

This was a significant and historic result, but despite the claims of some, it was hardly decisive. As we remainers are fond of saying, even Nigel Farage said a 52-48 result would not settle the matter - although he seems to have ignored this ever since 24^th June.

But more importantly, how long is the result valid for?

51.9 % of votes were for leave, 48.1% for remain. A majority of 1,229,501 sound impressive, but it was less than 3 in every hundred electors. Any MP or Councillor with a majority that small is only too aware that they are in a marginal seat with a tiny majority. It only takes less than 2 in every 100 people to change their mind and the result would be different.

But even if no-one changes their mind, the electorate is ever-changing as new people join the electoral roll and others leave.

Each year around 750,000 eighteen year olds become eligible to vote - and around 600,000 people die in the UK each year. So by the first anniversary of the referendum, the total change in the electorate will be greater than the majority for leave. Now of course, not every young voter wants to stay in the EU, and not every deceased voter voted to leave. But we know that older people tended to vote leave, and younger people tended to vote remain.

If no-one has changed their mind, then in June this year there might still be a majority for leave. But we won't know, and can't be sure. So when the Government claims a mandate for Brexit, it is already a mandate that is already getting close to its expiry date.

If article 50 is triggered in March this year, then negotiations will need to be more or less concluded by the end of 2018 to give time for ratification by the various parliaments. But by December 2018 there will be about 1.9 million new voters who were deemed not old enough to vote in the referendum, and about 1.5 million people (or more if you take emigration into account) will have left the electoral roll. Against those figures the 1.27 million majority in June 2016 will really be quite inadequate to claim any mandate.

Tim Farron has set out the case for a "referendum on the destination" on the basis that voters in June 2016 could not know what sort of Brexit we might end up with, but it will also be the case that without another referendum, or a general election, there will be no democratic mandate for any sort of Brexit. (Incidentally, this will be a third referendum, not a second - the first was in 1975, and at 67% for 'yes' it was decisive)

* Frank Hindle is chair of Gateshead Liberal Democrats (writing in a personal capacity) and a former leader of the opposition on Gateshead Council