High Peak Liberal Democrats

Why Theresa May’s speech is good news

Theresa May's speech today was a mixture of vacuous soundbites and ominous indicators of the direction of travel. Shorn of the window-dressing, it is clear that she leads a government of the Hard Brexit. She concluded with a nauseous section suggesting that the country is "coming together" after June's referendum. As one wag put it on Twitter, that is like setting a fire, burning the house down and expecting those who queried what you were doing to "come together" in the rebuilding project. More seriously, by opting for a Hard Brexit, exiting the single market (ironically, an achievement of Margaret Thatcher) and almost certainly the customs union, she is demonstrating no respect for the 16 million people who voted Remain.

So, why do I think the speech is good news? The clue is today's YouGov poll. This shows that the population currently splits as follows:

• 39% - Hard Brexit
• 25% - Soft Brexit
• 23% - Remain in the EU after all
• 13% - Not sure

Pursuing a Soft Brexit would have been risky for May but not as risky as Hard Brexit. For the first time, she has clearly put herself in backing a position supported only by a minority of voters. This allows the divided Remain side to unite around opposition to the UK coming out of the single market (with much historic material from Dan Hannan and Boris Johnson to support them!). It also allows them to peel off those Leavers who wanted to maintain single market access.

Furthermore, it is clear that there is no majority in the House of Commons to support exit from the single market. It is also expressly contrary to the Conservative's manifesto commitment which will allow the Lords full rein to oppose it.

The first opportunity will likely come with the bill to trigger Article 50. It now seems inevitable that there will be a parliamentary tussle to attach restrictive wording to it. This may lead to an immediate general election but even if it does not, there will be further chances.

But the better chance comes with the only real surprise in the speech - an express confirmation that the final "deal" would be put to Parliament for a vote. The pound immediately spiked upwards. That is because there is every chance that Parliament will vote it down - a likelihood that increases with every parliamentary by-election that the Liberal Democrats win. Hard Brexit can be defeated and that is the chance that May has delivered to us.

Of course, we have ranged against us powerful forces - the Conservative Party, UKIP and most of the mainstream press. But we have our supporters - business, trade unions, most political parties, experts and pressure groups. And what a chance for the Liberal Democrats - with the Labour Party hopelessly confused and divided and incapable of opposing. Can we seize it?

* Mark Goodrich is a former vice-chair of Richmond & Twickenham Liberal Democrats and now lives in Seoul, South Korea

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