So all the votes have been counted, the transfers shuffled and now we have up to three weeks of negotiations to see if the Northern Ireland Assembly can come together in some shape. But what was the story of the count yesterday in Northern Ireland's second election in 10 months?
So all the votes have been counted, the transfers shuffled and now we have up to three weeks of negotiations to see if the Northern Ireland Assembly can come together in some shape. But what was the story of the count yesterday in Northern Ireland's second election in 10 months?
This election saw a reduction of seats in Stormont from 108 to 90, or each seat returning just 5 MLAs. The turnout was up 10% on last May at 64.8% so every party was able to claim that more people voted for them but it was how that extra 10% of voters turned out that is the real story.
The two big gainers in the vote share were Sinn Féin up 3.9% and only 1200 votes behind the DUP in the popular vote and Alliance who were up 2.1%. The SDLP and UUP had negligible shifts in vote share -0.1% and +0.3% respectively, and the DUP dropped 1.1%. But this election became a story of transfers. From the moment that the UUP leader Mike Nesbitt said he would give his second preference to the SDLP things were shaping up.
Comment was being made in a number of seats how transfers from the UUP to SDLP or vice versa was denying the DUP of seats. A number of big hitters were excluded when other candidates jumped above them as the DUP proved almost as transfer toxic as Sinn Féin has been in the past. But the other tale is also that in some cases the DUP refusal to transfer to the UUP has cost the unionists a majority in Stormont for the first time ever.
The scores on the doors after all the seats were declared just after 3am this morning were:
DUP 28, SF 27, SDLP 12, UUP 10, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV 1, PBPA 1, Ind 1
In the end of the 18 seats that the Assembly has been reduced by 16 of those lost were by unionists; ten from the DUP six from the UUP, against only one for Sinn Féin and one for People Before Profit Alliance. The DUP have also lost the ability by themselves to lodge a petition of concern, even if they can get the TUV Jim Allister on board they are still one short of the magic number of 30.
There is a virtual dead heat in the new Assembly with 40 designating as Unionist and 39 as Nationalist and the balance of power lies with the others (Alliance, Green and PBPA) whose influence percentage rise has grown despite losing one seat.
While we know who can sit on the blue benches of the chamber, we have yet to know when or if they will be taking those seats. The next three weeks will be tense and heated, but will they result in some agreement to share power? Watch this space.
* Stephen Glenn is currently chair of Northern Ireland Liberal Democrats and a three-time Westminster candidate for the Liberal Democrats. He blogs at stephensliberaljournal.blogspot.com
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5 Comments
A good result for the Alliance. You would expect a reduction in the present climate of Brexit. To hold all seats and increase the vote, to me. is an indication that Brexit is not liked in N.I. Yes the votes will increase in all seats 'cos of the reduction of seats and the 10% increase in turnout but it is an indication to May to tread carefully.
DUP 28, UUP 10, TUV 1,
SF 27, SDLP 12, Alliance 8, Green 2, PBPA 1, Ind 1
The BBC should note that "Unionists" elected to the Assembly are divided into three parties which do not always agree. It is the DUP which has lost its majority and ability to veto.
To be fair Richard the UUP also lost 6 seats!
WhatNorthern Ireland needs is a united front of the civilised parties against Sinn Fein
Time to revisit the Good Friday Agreement, I think. Effectively, the existing agreement gives SF and DUP each a veto over the formation of the Northern Ireland Executive; if either refuses to take part then it cannot be formed. We are seeing this already with Arlene Foster refusing to stand down as DUP leader and hence First Minister designate. Something like a voluntary coalition would be better, but perhaps it needs Direct Rule before the politicians admit that they cannot carry on with the present dysfunctional system.