High Peak Liberal Democrats
If you want to win a parliamentary seat at the next General Election start thinking about the new parliamentary boundaries.Seasoned political campaigners understand the importance of the boundaries. Any area that is divided up into electoral districts has to have lines drawn somewhere. Moving a village between this or that constituency can make all the difference to who wins and who loses. Sometimes changes are so significant that new constituencies are radically different to their predecessors.
In 2011, Parliament amended the Parliamentary Constituency Act 1986. There were two main changes: 650 MPs would be reduced to 600 and constituencies will be more similar in size of electorate.
The latter reform, for closer parity, should be welcome in principle. Every citizen deserves equal power. In whichever constituency I live my vote should by one similarly sized share of the total to be cast. My neighbour in another constituency should not have significantly more or less voting power in his area than I do in mine.
The reduction in the number of MPs has less to commend it, for now. The argument for reduction is that Parliament is overlarge compared to the equivalent bodies in other democracies. But a reduction in number of MPs will tend to exacerbate the under-representation of small parties. If you are a small party, First Past the Post already ensures you will get many fewer seats than would properly represent your party's overall support across the country. To get any seats there have to be areas where your level of support is considerably at positive variance with your average support. In simple terms, the bigger the seats are the more unlikely it will be that such unusually high variances from the average can occur.
It is for that reason that democrats should only support a reduction in the size of the Commons in the context of a wider political reform: a fairer voting system and reform of campaign finance laws. It was because of the broken promises of Conservatives on House of Lords Reform that Liberal Democrats stopped the 2013 Boundary Reviews taking effect.
In 2016, the process began for Boundary Reviews to be completed in 2018. People commonly speak of "the boundary review" but this is wrong. The 2011 Act creates four reviews: one for each of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
A draft set of new parliamentary boundaries was created. The English proposals are here. There were consultation periods in September 2016 and March 2017.
The expectation was that these new boundaries would take effect for the anticipated 2020 General Election.
People are asking what happen now that another General Election has intervened? Will the process start from scratch again?
The 2018 Boundary Review is continuing. The 1986 Act (as amended in 2011) compels the review process to continue. The Boundary Review for England have confirmed this and stated that they are presently considering responses to the March 2017 consultation.
The Review will then publish final proposals. These will be laid before Parliament in an Order in Council in September 2018. This is mandated in s. 3(2) of the Act. If Parliament does not vote to block the proposed new boundaries they will, as a matter of law, take effect for any General Election after that date (whether in 2022 or before).
The Tories lost their majority. Is there any chance of Parliament not passing the new boundaries?
This is more of a political than a legal or constitutional question. Some people suggest the DUP may not like the proposed new boundaries and so will vote them down. I don't know enough about NI politics to know if new boundaries will or will not suit the DUP.
However, it is a fallacy to suggest "the DUP will vote the Review down." There are 4 reviews. When they are laid before Parliament it will be open to the Conservative-DUP majority to bock the Northern Ireland proposals to keep the DUP on side, but pass the proposals for England, Scotland and Wales. The Tories have a vested interest in doing so. The DUP have a vested interest in the Tories.
David Steel famously asked the party to "go back to your constituencies and prepare for government".
Unless you think there will be General Election before September 2018 (which appears very unlikely) then you would be well advised to go back to you new constituencies.
* Antony Hook was #2 on the South East European list in 2014, is the English Party's representative on the Federal Executive and produces this sites EU Referendum Roundup.
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