High Peak Liberal Democrats

Leaving the EU without a trade deal could cost Britain £430 BILLION over five years, warns Vince Cable

The Liberal Democrat leader added that even a soft Brexit could cost £235bn

He said figures are 'indictment' of David Davis exploring possibility of no deal

He said UK's economic output in five years after Brexit would fall by 5.3 per cent

Vince Cable has warned that leaving the EU without a deal could cost the country an astonishing £430 billion over five years.

The Liberal Democrat leader said the figures, based on the cumulative impact on the country's economic output, were a 'real indictment' of Brexit Secretary David Davis 'talking up' the possibility of a no-deal Brexit as part of a negotiating strategy.

Sir Vince added that even a soft Brexit could cost £235 billion.

Using calculations based on research by the London School of Economics, the Lib Dems say that if the UK exits the EU in March 2019 without a deal, Britain's economic output in the five years after Brexit would be reduced by 5.3 per cent, or £430 billion.

Even if the UK agreed to a Norway-style arrangement, in which we retain full access to the Single Market, there would still be a reduction of 2.9 per cent - or £235 billion. London would be worst hit by a no-deal Brexit, with a £115 billion fall in output up to March 2024.

Sir Vince said: 'These figures are a real indictment of the Government's strategy. David Davis is still talking up the possibility of a no-deal Brexit, yet these figures suggest that would cost Britain a ruinous £430 billion over five years.

The Government refuses to publish its own projections, so this is the best guide we have. If talking up a no deal is meant to be a negotiating tactic, it is not working because the EU27 is not taking the Government's threats seriously.

'All the no-deal speculation is doing is talking down Britain to potential investors.'

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