Confusion reigns over who stands for what, and not just on Brexit

It's a regular refrain of mine that almost everyone in politics almost always over-estimates how much the public knows about politics. The public's knowledge of politics is rather like mine of women's hockey. It peaks about every four years when there's a burst of daily mainstream media coverage and then fades quickly. Just one example of the public knowledge about politics - mid-general election campaign last year 1 in 5 voters could not name the leader of the Conservative Party.

The news, therefore, that the public is generally unclear about what any party wants on Brexit is not surprising. That only 26% think the Liberal Democrat position is clear or very clear is also, however, a reminder that the party needs to talk both in volume and with clarity about Brexit until well past the point at which most activists are counting articles of EU treaties in their sleep.

New YouGov polling has also found that 63% of voters say they are uncertain or very uncertain about what the party stands for - up from 56% in September. The party's problem isn't the direct legacy of coalition: only 21% say the party was wrong to go into coalition in 2010 and that they also haven't forgiven the party; 15% have forgiven the party, 28% say it was the right decision and 36% don't have a view. Rather it's the longer-term legacy of failing to build a core vote, based on a consistent focus on who the party priorities appealing to and what image the party wants to convey through its chosen actions. (More on that of course in the core votes pamphlet.)

One piece of good news comes from the latest YouGov polling which shows that if the Lib Dems can get the Brexit message right, there is plenty of scope for the party's vote share to grow:

Imagine at the next election the Conservative and Labour parties both support going ahead with Brexit, and the Liberal Democrats are opposed to Brexit. How would you then vote?
Conservative 31% / Labour 22% / Lib Dem 18% / Other 5% / Don't know or wouldn't vote 25%

Excluding the don't knows and wouldn't votes (which is what headline poll figures usually do), that gives:
Conservative 41% / Labour 29% / Lib Dem 24% / Other 7%

The other good news is that the proposed party strategy coming to conference in Southport attempts to address just this - watch out for more on that as conference nears.