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No, this is not a fake. Yes, the Lib Dems are top in the last opinion poll

June 1, 2019 12:37 PM
By Mark Pack Author, 101 Ways To Win An Election

This is really the front page from Friday's Times featuring the first post-European elections general election voting intention poll. It puts the Liberal Democrats up massively to 24%… and in first place.

The Times front page with YouGov poll putting the Liberal Democrats first

It is, of course, only one poll but one that falls into the 'dramatic enough yet also plausible enough to be worth attention' category. Plausible in that it both continues the rising Lib Dem poll ratings of the last few weeks and also because a dramatic Lib Dem (or Alliance or Liberal before that) election win in the past has often been followed by a polls surge.

Some of those surges have come and gone very quickly. Others have helped reshape the landscape for British politics for varying lengths of time. It is going to be exciting to find out which one this is.

Labour certainly seems to be doing its best to ensure it is the latter:

Ian Kearns 🔶 @IankKearns

Is ⁦@LibDems⁩ HQ paying for this recruitment drive or are we getting it for free? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/30/soft-brexit-corbyn-labour-second-referendum-some-way-off-backs

Corbyn backs soft Brexit and says second referendum 'some way off'

Labour leader also does not say whether remain would be on ballot paper in any public vote

See Ian Kearns 🔶's other Tweets

Meanwhile, the celebrations for the Liberal Democrats can last just that bit longer after the Euros:

Mark Pack 🔶 @markpack

Damn, that Jeremy Corbyn is clever with his 4D chess to fox the Conservatives by lulling them into a false sense of security by manoeuvring the Lib Dems into first.

20 people are talking about this
Mark Pack 🔶 @markpack

OK, slightly more serious points: last time Lib Dems surged to first place in the polls, the party didn't make the most of it. There are lots of aspects to that, including not turning it into members and money. It's great that we've now got an operation much better at doing that.

Mark Pack 🔶 @markpack

A second less from last time is that people started thinking we could win in all sorts of places, as a result of which effort was spread far too thin and we missed out on places we would have otherwise won. An important point to remember if current situation persists.

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Mark Pack Twitter thread about how hard work of supporters created the run of success