Another week and Six Lib Dem gains with massive swings

24 Sep 2016
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What a wonderful week! Seven gains in Fourteen by-elections for the Liberal Democrats

And substantial swings in three other seats.

Well done to all the Lib Dem campaigns on such good results.

Following Tuesday's victorious warm-up, in Cardiff UA, Plasnewydd Thursday brings ten by-elections starting with a Labour gain but a big swing to the Lib Dems in Allerdale BC, Christchurch Cumbria:

That's not only a goodly swing to the Lib Dems, it's also in a ward which the party did not even contest in 2003 or 2007, and has finished well back in during the three contests since then. That makes it another example of the sort of semi-distant second which the party needs.

But even better in Teignbridge DC, Teignmouth Central:

Having won the ward in 2007, the Lib Dems slipped behind the Tories but managed to hold on to second place in 2011 and 2015 before a win in this by-election.

Liberal Democrats also gained to seats from the Conservatives on the Teignmouth Town council

Elsewhere it was a rare good night for Labour in council by-election, actually making some real headway rather than the usual picture of pretty much holding stead.

An second gain of the night for Labour in North Lanarkshire UA, Coatbridge North & Glenboig Scotland was in rather special circumstances. The local SNP has been deluged with crisis and controversy, with the branch suspended for several months, and the remaining SNP councillor in the ward also being suspended for racism and in turn sueing for the libel the person who accused them. No Lib Dem candidate alas even though the party put one up in the last by-election here in 2011:

The third gain for Labour was a straight-forwardly good result, gaining a seat from the Tories in North Warwickshire BC, Arley and Whitacre a marginal Parliamentary seat too (Nuneaton):

Over in Wales:

Good to see a Lib Dem candidate in Carmarthenshire UA, Cilycwm as there wasn't one in 2004, 2008 or 2012 when this ward was fought.

Elsewhere, the pattern of Lib Dems starting to fight seats again and winning more than a tiny share of the vote continued in Gateshead MB, Chopwell & Rolands Gill in a ward where the Lib Dems years back often finished a decent second but never came close to winning:

But also two much less promising Lib Dem results:

Teignbridge DC, Teignmouth Central - 22nd September 2016

LD Alison Eden 491 [51.1%; +26.8%]

Con 286 [29.8%; -3.7%]

UKIP 111 [11.6%; +11.6%]

Lab 72 [7.5%; -8.1%]

[Independent [0.0%; -26.6%]

Majority 205

Turnout 25.08%

LD gain from Conservatives

Percentage change since 2015

Hailsham TC, East - 22nd September 2016

LD Graham Moore 161 [59.6%]
Independent 109 [40.4%]
Majority 52
Turnout 13.3%
LD gain from Labour
(last election 2015 uncontested)

Teignmouth TC, Central (two seats) - 22nd September 2016

LD Julie Philips 451 [48.3%]

LD Roy Gordon Philips 399

Conservative 355 [38.0%]

Conservative 326 Labour 128 [13.7%]

Labour 119

Majority 96

Turnout 24.9%

LD gains (x2) from Conservatives

Cardiff UA, Plasnewydd - 20th September 2016

LD Robin Rea 1258 [48.1%; +16.9%]
Labour 910 [34.8%; -0.3%]
Plaid Cymru 177 [6.8%; -4.8%]
Conservative 115 [4.4%; -5.5%]
Green 93 [3.6%; -8.7%]
UKIP 62 [2.4%; +2.4%]
Majority 348
Turnout 23.1%
LD gain from Labour
Percentage change since 2012

Cockermouth TC, Christchurch - 22nd September 2016

LD Rebecca Hanson 228 [41.1%]
Labour 189 [34.1%]
No Description 138 [24.8%]
Majority 39
Turnout 36%
LD gain
Last contested 2015

Suffolk CC, Hadleigh - 22nd September

LD Trevor Sheldrick 642 [36.2%; 12.0%]
Conservative 460 [25.9%; -5.6%]
Labour 397 [22.4%; 5.8%]
UKIP 204 [11.5%; -11.3%]
Green 70 [3.9%; -0.9%]
Majority 182
LD gain from Conservative
Percentage change since 2013

Allerdale BC, Christchurch - 22nd September 2016

Labour 324 [40.7%; +5.8%]

LD Debbie Taylor 234 [29.4%; +20.0%]

Conservative 206 [25.9%; -19.3%]

UKIP 32 [4.0%; +4.0%]

Majority 90

Turnout 36%

Labour gain from Conservative

Percentage change since 2015

Gateshead MB, Chopwell & Rolands Gill - 22nd September 2016

Labour 1066 [59.1%; -3.7%]
UKIP 282 [15.6%; +1.3%]
LD Amelia Louise Ord 221 [12.3%; +7.9%]
Conservative 156 [8.6%; -2.3%]
Green 79 [4.4%; -3.2%]
Majority 784
Labour hold
Percentage change since 2016

Cherwell DC, Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote - 22nd September 2016

Conservative 1015 [57.4%; 8.5%]
Labour 286 [16.2%; -0.3%]
Green 278 [15.7%; -5.5%]
LD Ian Richard Thomas 189 [10.7%; -2.8%]
Majority 729
Turnout 24.8%
Conservative hold
Percentage change since 2016

Carmarthenshire UA, Cilycwm - 22nd September 2016

Plaid Cymru 201 [27.8%; +27.8%]
Independent 151 [20.9%; +20.9%]
Labour 123 [17.0%; +17.0%]
Independent 106 [14.7%; +14.7%]
People First 64 [8.9%; +8.9%]
LD Catherine Nakielny 62 [8.6%; +8.6%]
Conservative 15 [2.1%; -17.2%]
[Independent [0.0%; -43.4%]]
[Independent [0.0%; -37.34%]]
Majority 50
Turnout 61%
Plaid Cymru gain from Independent
Percentage change since 2012

North Lanarkshire UA, Coatbridge North & Glenboig - 22nd September 2016

Labour 1350 [41.7%; -9.0%]
SNP 1261 [39.0%; +14.7%]
Conservative 366 [11.3%; +2.1%]
Green 195 [6.0%; +6.0%]
UKIP 63 [1.9%; +1.9%]
Majority 89
Turnout 23.7%
Labour gain from SNP
First preferences. Percentage change since 2012.

North Warwickshire BC, Arley and Whitacre - 22nd September 2016

Labour 577 [59.7%; +33.7%]
Conservative 390 [40.3%; +1.7%]
Majority 187
Turnout 22.8%
Labour gain from Conservative
Percentage change since 2015

South Northamptonshire DC, Old Stratford - 22nd September 2016

Conservative 369 [77.2%]

UKIP 109 [22.8%]

Majority 260

Conservative hold

(Last election 2015, Conservative candidate was elected unopposed)

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