Witney byelection: Lib Dems resurgent as Tories hold on with slashed majority
At the Witney byelection, the Liberal Democrats saw their biggest swing in two decades, leapfrogging Labour and Ukip to take second place.
The result in Cameron's former seat was still a comfortable win for Robert Courts, a barrister and local councillor, but his tally was more than 17,000 votes behind those cast for the former prime minister in 2015.
After a short speech in which he thanked his wife and family and praised his "brilliant" predecessor, Courts left the count without speaking to the media.
Few would have bet against the Conservatives in this seat. Witney has had a Tory MP since its creation in 1983, and at no time has the candidate had less than 43% of the vote share.
However, as an affluent, liberal part of the country that recorded a strong remain vote in the EU referendum, senior Lib Dems said they saw west Oxfordshire as a test ground for more winnable seats. The party hoped to capitalise on the fact that Cameron's chosen successor had voted for Brexit.
Liz Leffman, the Lib Dem candidate, said the result was a "shot across the bow" of Theresa May. "People here don't want to come out of the single market, they don't want jobs at risk and that's what we were voting on today. People who voted for me are traditional Conservatives, who have voted Conservative for decades. Mrs May is the new Ukip and people are not comfortable with a party lurching in that direction."
Watching the count in the Windrush leisure centre, Lib Dem home affairs spokesman Alastair Carmichael said the result should not be taken in isolation. "What we are getting very strongly here, as a part of the country that voted to remain, is that the idea of walking away from the single market, the unpleasantness from Amber Rudd at Tory conference, these things have not played well in a constituency like this.
"These people liked David Cameron, his brand of centre-right Conservatism and the modernity of it. And they look at what they've got now instead and they don't like it."
The party threw extensive resources into the fight, shipping down more than 1,000 activists one weekend and with Lib Dem leader Tim Farron visiting the constituency five times.
In the hall, several other candidates from more minor parties complained they had had a hostile reception on the doorstep, because locals complained of being besieged by Lib Dem canvassers. "I'm not sure if that might have actually put some people off," one candidate grumbled.
Tory sources began briefing early that they were expecting to lose a significant share of the vote, and last Saturday May joined Cameron on the stump in Oxfordshire, breaking the convention that prime ministers do not campaign in byelections.
Home office minister Brandon Lewis said the party considered it a good result. "This is almost exactly the same as David Cameron got when he first stood. We've seen Labour crashing, Ukip crashing and the Lib Dems benefiting from that but the reality is Robert's got a very good majority and a clear win for the Conservatives." He denied it was unusual for Courts to have left the count abruptly.
Labour's candidate, local councillor Duncan Enright, slid from second in 2015 to third, though party sources said vote share in Labour pockets had held up well. Allies of Enright, who had called for Jeremy Corbyn to step down as Labour leader during the crisis in the party over the summer, said they had expected to fall behind the Lib Dems.
Green candidate Larry Sanders, brother of the US presidential challenger Bernie Sanders, beat Ukip for fourth place.